Friday, March 21, 2008

Obama, Clinton down... Gore up

I've followed the Intrade political futures for several months and today I noticed activity I haven't seen before: Clinton's shares are down, as are Obama's, while Al Gore's are up, by a lot. I suppose Gore's shares should rise to the extent that the Obama-Clinton contest becomes increasingly intractable (even though the numbers say Obama has essentially won), or to the extent that someone believes one of the two will receive the nomination and then, god forbid, suffer some debilitating harm. But in either case, I don't see how Gore benefits as long as two candidates remain in play, which explains why his shares trade at a small fraction of the price of Obama and Clinton. Still, something is up. His shares increased by roughly a third today --from 2.30 to 3.10--and have nearly tripled in the past month, so some people think Gore may yet receive the Democratic nod. Perhaps it's bet hedging, or just funky market activity induced by Good Friday low-volume trading.