Saturday, June 09, 2007

Tiger Woods at the majors through 2011

Pete projects Tiger's chances at the majors through 2011 (the last year for which we now know the PGA, US Open, or British Open courses):
[L]et's say he has 59 more majors before he gets too old to win (46 years old, the age Jack was when he won his last). Can he win 7 out of 59? That’s 11.86% of the majors for the next 15 years. That’s less than one every two years. For some reason that, at the same time, seems totally do-able and incredibly hard... 2009 and 2010 give him the best chance for the Grand Slam. 2010 especially. And look at all the major courses where he's won or has significant experience; that's scary for everyone else."

The real meat of the post is in Pete's commentary on Tiger's chances at each individual course, for instance:
2007 US Open, Oakmont (originally I thought this course wouldn't be good for Tiger, but they've taken out a lot of trees so it'll be a long course with heavy rough, which should favor strength, much like Bethpage Black)
2007 British Open, Carnoustie (played well there in 1999 and had a chance to win)

Be sure to click over and read the whole thing if you're a golf/Tiger fan.
Revisiting Carnoustie should be interesting, as the media will repeatedly remind us of Jean Van de Velde's dramatic triple-bogey collapse on 18, leaving him tied with Justin Leonard and Paul Lawrie, who ultimately won in the playoff.


Wake_Up_Everybody said...

David, who do you like in the US Open? Here are my precitions:

David Archer said...

I like:
1. The field
2. Tiger
3. Goosen
4. Els
[I like these past winners]
After that things get fuzzy, but I'm looking forward to finding out if a Steve Jones emerges.